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By TT News| Aug 02, 2021

Latest World Rubber Industry Outlook Forecast Now Available From IRSG

The Secretariat of the International Rubber Study Group (IRSG), an International body involved in the world rubber market, has published the World Rubber Industry Outlook (WRIO) report on production, consumption, trade and prices – covering both natural rubber (NR) and synthetic rubber (SR).

WRIO presents the latest long-term forecasts for the next 10 years, covering the world economy as well as the vehicle, tyre and rubber sectors on a biannual basis.

The July 2021 edition of the WRIO report comprises two economic scenarios – Base case Scenario and Downside Scenario.

The global rubber demand declined by 6 percent in 2020, reaching 27.07 million tones; the contraction in 2020 is 1.1 percentage point smaller than IRSG's earlier projection because of a strong recovery in the second half of 2020 in both advanced economies and China.

The vaccine-powered recovery in a few advanced economies amid high infection rates of the virus variant, low vaccination rate and sluggish growth in developing countries are leading to a lopsided global recovery, as covered in the Base case Scenario.

The global rubber demand in the tyre sector is expected to recover by 7.2 percent in 2021 from -7.3 percent in 2020. A stronger recovery projected for the non-tyre sector (7.6 percent) is driven by the continuing surge in demand for rubber products in the global healthcare industry and a stronger recovery in the supply chain of mobility. The total rubber demand is forecast to rebound by 7.4 percent in 2021 and moderate to 4.7 percent in 2022 under the IMF Scenario.

The global NR demand fell by 6.8 percent in 2020, reaching 12.71 million tones and projected to rebound by 7.1 percent in 2021 owing to sharp recovery expected in the CV (Commercial Vehicles) segment in the mature and emerging markets. The world SR demand declined by 5.3 percent, reaching 14.36 million tonnes in 2020 and is forecasted to recover by 7.6 percent in 2021 supported by stronger growth in the US, Europe and Asia.

Global NR production declined by 5.1 percent in 2020 reaching 13 million tonnes while the total NR production is expected to rebound by 6.5 percent, reaching 13.86 million tones. This estimate, if brought into fruition, may exceed the pre-pandemic 2019 production levels. NR production growth will moderate to 3.5 percent in 2022. (TT)

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